vault backup: 2025-03-16 18:59:42

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boris committed 2025-03-16 18:59:42 +00:00
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@@ -55,13 +55,17 @@
# Modified Probability Estimates
- Consider attribute *outlook* for class *yes*
# $\frac{2+\frac{1}{3}\mu}{9+\mu}$
Sunny
# $\frac{4+\frac{1}{3}\mu}{9+\mu}$
Overcast
# $\frac{3+\frac{1}{3}\mu}{9+\mu}$
Rainy
- Each value treated the same way
@@ -73,13 +77,16 @@ Rainy
## Fully Bayesian Formulation
# $\frac{2+\frac{1}{3}\mu p_1}{9+\mu}$
Sunny
# $\frac{4+\frac{1}{3}\mu p_2}{9+\mu}$
Overcast
# $\frac{3+\frac{1}{3}\mu p_3}{9+\mu}$
Rainy
- Where $p_1 + p_2 + p_3 = 1$
- $p_1, p_2, p_3$ are prior probabilities of outlook being sunny, overcast or rainy before seeing the training set. However, in practice it is not clear how these prior probabilities should be assigned.
- Where $p_1 + p_2 + p_3 = 1$
- $p_1, p_2, p_3$ are prior probabilities of outlook being sunny, overcast or rainy before seeing the training set. However, in practice it is not clear how these prior probabilities should be assigned.
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@@ -27,20 +27,25 @@
| High | 2/5 | 1/9 | Red | 3/5 | 2/9 | | | | | | | | |
# Problem 1
# $Pr[Diagnosis=N|E] = \frac{2}{5} \times \frac{2}{5} \times \frac{4}{5} \times \frac{3}{5} \times \frac{5}{14} = 0.027428571$
# $Pr[Diagnosis = B|E] = \frac{3}{9} \times \frac{4}{9} \times \frac{3}{9} \times \frac{3}{9} \times \frac{9}{14} = 0.010582011$
# $p(B) = \frac{0.0106}{0.0106+0.0274} = 0.2789$
# $p(N) = \frac{0.0274}{0.0106+0.0274} = 0.7211$
# $p(N) = \frac{0.0274}{0.0106+0.0274} = 0.7211$
Diagnosis N is much more likely than Diagnosis B
# Problem 2
# $Pr[Diagnosis = N|E] = \frac{2}{5} \times \frac{1}{5} \times \frac{3}{5} \times \frac{5}{14} = 0.0171$
# $Pr[Diagnosis = B|E] = \frac{3}{9} \times \frac{6}{9} \times \frac{3}{9} \times \frac{9}{14} = 0.0476$
# $p(N) = \frac{0.0171}{0.0171+0.0476} = 0.2643$
# $p(B) = \frac{0.0474}{0.0476+0.0171} = 0.7357$
Diagnosis B is much more likely than Diagnosis N
@@ -48,4 +53,5 @@ Diagnosis B is much more likely than Diagnosis N
# Problem 3
# $Pr[Diagnosis = N|E] = \frac{0}{5} \times \frac{2}{5} \times \frac{4}{5} \times \frac{3}{5} \times \frac{5}{14} = 0$
# $Pr[Diagnosis = B|E] = \frac{5}{9} \times \frac{4}{9} \times \frac{3}{9} \times \frac{3}{9} \times \frac{9}{14} = 0.018$
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@@ -274,4 +274,4 @@ Root mean squared error 0.3223
Relative absolute error 70.1487 %
Root relative squared error 68.0965 %
Total Number of Instances 3
```
```